Options for managing human threats to high seas biodiversity

Areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) constitute 61% of the world's oceans and are collectively managed by countries under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Growing concern regarding the deteriorating state of the oceans and ineffective management of ABNJ has resulted in negotiations to develop an international legally binding instrument (ILBI) for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction under UNCLOS. To inform these negotiations, we identified existing and emerging human activities and influences that affect ABNJ and evaluated management options available to mitigate the most pervasive, with highest potential for impact and probability of emergence. The highest-ranking activities and influences that affect ABNJ were fishing/hunting, maritime shipping, climate change and its associated effects, land-based pollution and mineral exploitation. Management options are diverse and available through a variety of actors, although their actions are not always effective. Area-based management tools (ABMTs), including marine protected areas (MPAs), were the only consistently effective option to mitigate impacts across high-ranked activities and influences. However, addressing land-based pollution will require national action to prevent this at its source, and MPAs offer only a partial solution for climate change. A new ABNJ ILBI could help unify management options and actors to conserve marine biodiversity and ensure sustainable use. Incorporating a mechanism to establish effective ABMTs into the ILBI will help deliver multiple objectives based on the ecosystem approach

Inference for epidemic models with time varying infection rates: tracking the dynamics of oak processionary moth in the UK

1. Invasive pests pose a great threat to forest, woodland, and urban tree ecosystems. The oak processionary moth (OPM) is a destructive pest of oak trees, first reported in the UK in 2006. Despite great efforts to contain the outbreak within the original infested area of South-East England, OPM continues to spread. 2. Here, we analyze data consisting of the numbers of OPM nests removed each year from two parks in London between 2013 and 2020. Using a state-of-the-art Bayesian inference scheme, we estimate the parameters for a stochastic compartmental SIR (susceptible, infested, and removed) model with a time-varying infestation rate to describe the spread of OPM. 3. We find that the infestation rate and subsequent basic reproduction number have remained constant since 2013 (with R0 between one and two). This shows further controls must be taken to reduce R0 below one and stop the advance of OPM into other areas of England. 4. Synthesis. Our findings demonstrate the applicability of the SIR model to describing OPM spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time-varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data

Quantifying Invasive Pest Dynamics through Inference of a Two-Node Epidemic Network Model

Invasive woodland pests have substantial ecological, economic, and social impacts, harming biodiversity and ecosystem services. Mathematical modelling informed by Bayesian inference can deepen our understanding of the fundamental behaviours of invasive pests and provide predictive tools for forecasting future spread. A key invasive pest of concern in the UK is the oak processionary moth (OPM). OPM was established in the UK in 2006; it is harmful to both oak trees and humans, and its infestation area is continually expanding. Here, we use a computational inference scheme to estimate the parameters for a two-node network epidemic model to describe the temporal dynamics of OPM in two geographically neighbouring parks (Bushy Park and Richmond Park, London). We show the applicability of such a network model to describing invasive pest dynamics and our results suggest that the infestation within Richmond Park has largely driven the infestation within Bushy Park